Thorin Backs Falcons for EPL S24 as karrigan’s Underdog Factor Returns

Counter-Strike analyst Duncan “Thorin” Shields has picked Falcons as his team to win EPL S24, arguing that the roster may be entering exactly the kind of low-expectation environment in which Finn “karrigan” Andersen has historically produced some of his most memorable tournament runs.

Speaking on the Snake & Banter podcast, Thorin highlighted Ilya “m0NESY” Osipov’s individual match-winning potential, karrigan’s extensive history in Katowice and the unusual position Falcons occupy before ESL Pro League Season 24: a highly seeded Major-winning lineup that, in Thorin’s view, is no longer being treated like an obvious championship favorite. 

EPL S24 runs from October 3–11, 2026 in Katowice, Poland, with 16 teams competing for $1 million in total winnings. Falcons are seeded third for the Swiss group stage and will open against TYLOO. 

 

Quick Summary

Tournament information is confirmed by ESL and HLTV. 

 

What Did Thorin Say About Falcons at EPL S24?

Counter-Strike analyst Duncan “Thorin” Shields picked Falcons to win EPL S24, pointing to the team's individual ceiling and karrigan's experience.

 

Thorin said he is backing Falcons to win ESL Pro League Season 24.

His reasoning starts with the roster's individual ceiling. In particular, he singled out m0NESY as one of the players he trusts to take over matches individually. He also pointed toward karrigan's enormous experience playing in Katowice and at the Spodek Arena. 

The most interesting part of the argument, however, concerned expectations around Falcons.

Thorin described the team as closer to an underdog or “dark horse” than an unquestioned favorite. In his analysis, that environment has often suited karrigan-led teams.

“They are no longer really perceived as one of the main favorites. And it’s in moments like these that, I think, the signature karrigan power spike activates.”

The English wording above is a translation of Thorin's remarks.

That characterization needs an important qualification: Falcons are not statistical outsiders in the EPL S24 field. ESL's peer-based tournament seeding places them third, behind only Spirit and Vitality. Thorin's point is therefore better understood as commentary about championship expectations rather than Falcons' formal position in the tournament. 

 

Why Falcons Enter EPL S24 in an Unusual Position

Falcons arrive at EPL S24 as a proven championship-level roster, but Thorin believes the absence of overwhelming favorite status could suit karrigan.

 

Falcons' 2026 trajectory makes Thorin's argument particularly interesting.

karrigan officially joined the organization on April 20, replacing Damjan “kyxsan” Stoilkovski. His first event with the new lineup was PGL Astana 2026, where Falcons reached the grand final. 

The move eventually produced a much bigger result.

Falcons won the IEM Cologne Major 2026, with HLTV later describing their playoff route as one of the toughest Major runs in recent history. They had to overcome elite opposition including Vitality and Spirit before securing the trophy. 

The period after Cologne has been less straightforward. Most recently, Falcons reached the semifinals of BLAST Open Porto 2026 but lost 0–2 to Spirit. BLAST noted that Falcons attempted comebacks on both Nuke and Ancient but could not complete either one. 

That creates an unusual EPL S24 narrative: Falcons have already demonstrated a championship ceiling with this roster, but they arrive in Katowice without the momentum that would automatically make them the consensus team to beat.

 

Falcons EPL S24 Roster

Falcons are expected to use the same five-player lineup that won the Cologne Major. Liquipedia lists the following roster for EPL S24. 

The central tactical relationship remains karrigan's leadership combined with an extremely high individual ceiling elsewhere in the lineup.

kyousuke has previously described the change after karrigan's arrival as a fundamentally different approach to Counter-Strike, saying players received more freedom to make calls within rounds. NiKo similarly said karrigan brought a different energy to the team and can help release tension during difficult matches. 

 

EPL S24 Format and Key Details

ESL Pro League Season 24 is a ranked LAN event featuring 16 teams. The group stage uses a Swiss best-of-three system, with eight teams advancing to the playoffs. 

The tournament's $1 million total is split between player and club shares: HLTV lists $300,000 for players and $700,000 for clubs. 

 

Why Thorin’s karrigan Argument Matters

Thorin's “power spike” description is analysis rather than a measurable statistic. Still, there is a recent result that explains why the narrative exists.

Falcons' Cologne Major run showed how dangerous a karrigan-led roster can become once it reaches the knockout stage.

HLTV calculated that Falcons faced opponents with an average pre-event ranking of No. 3 during the Cologne playoffs, highlighting the difficulty of their route to the championship. 

The connection to EPL S24 is not that history guarantees another deep run. It doesn't.

Instead, Cologne provides evidence that this particular Falcons lineup has already succeeded against elite opposition under high-pressure LAN conditions.

There is another relevant parallel: Katowice is familiar territory for karrigan, which Thorin specifically referenced when making his prediction. EPL S24's final three days will take place inside the Spodek Arena. 

 

Tactical Impact: What karrigan Gives Falcons

The tactical question surrounding Falcons is unusual because the team's ceiling is not primarily about adding more firepower.

The roster already contains m0NESY, NiKo and kyousuke.

Instead, karrigan's potential value is structural: creating enough freedom and workable situations for those mechanically gifted players to decide rounds.

That interpretation is supported by kyousuke's description of the system. The young rifler said that under karrigan, players have greater freedom during rounds and can make calls around their own situations. 

There is a trade-off.

Vitality captain Dan “apEX” Madesclaire recently argued that karrigan's individual level can become exploitable, claiming some opponents specifically target his bombsite. That is apEX's assessment, not an independently established tactical rule, but it illustrates one of the questions Falcons must manage: whether the advantages of karrigan's calling can consistently outweigh the team's potential fragging imbalance. 

 

Tournament Impact: Falcons Are Seeded Higher Than the “Dark Horse” Label Suggests

One of the most useful distinctions around Thorin's comments is the difference between perception and seeding.

Falcons received the No. 3 seed for EPL S24.

The tournament's seeding was produced by having all 16 participating teams rank their opponents. ESL then averaged those rankings after removing outliers. The resulting top four were:

1. Spirit
2. Vitality
3. Falcons
4. MOUZ

So while Thorin believes Falcons are being treated more like a dark horse, their peers still placed them among the strongest teams in the field. 

That contrast gives EPL S24 one of its most interesting pre-tournament storylines.

 

Falcons Timeline Before EPL S24

 

Historical Comparison: Cologne Is the Blueprint

Falcons' IEM Cologne Major triumph remains the strongest evidence of what karrigan's lineup can produce against elite opposition on the biggest stage.

 

The clearest recent reference point for Thorin's theory is the Cologne Major.

karrigan had joined Falcons only in April, yet by June the lineup had become Major champion. Liquipedia notes that he won IEM Cologne Major 2026 just 61 days after joining Falcons. 

More importantly, it wasn't achieved through an easy playoff bracket.

Falcons had to eliminate elite opposition, including Vitality and Spirit, before winning the championship. 

That does not establish a repeatable “underdog buff,” but it explains why another lower-pressure environment around karrigan attracts attention.

 

Impact Analysis

For Falcons, EPL S24 is another test of whether Cologne represented the beginning of a sustainable championship-level team or an exceptional tournament peak.

For karrigan, Katowice adds another high-profile LAN to a career already heavily associated with major arena events. His calling will be especially scrutinized if Falcons reach the Spodek playoffs.

For m0NESY, Thorin's comments reinforce the expectation that Falcons can rely on him as a series-changing star. karrigan himself recently described m0NESY as perhaps the best player he has ever played alongside and emphasized that the two share a similar vision of the game. 

For the EPL S24 field, Falcons provide another credible championship-level threat alongside teams such as Spirit and Vitality — even if analysts disagree about exactly where the hierarchy begins.

 

What Changes Now?

Nothing changes structurally for Falcons because of Thorin's comments. This is a pre-tournament assessment, not a roster announcement or competitive ruling.

The more meaningful development is the finalized EPL S24 seeding.

Falcons enter as the third seed and begin against No. 14 seed TYLOO. Because the group stage follows a Swiss format, subsequent opponents will depend on results and tournament progression rather than a fully predetermined bracket. 

That means the first meaningful test of Thorin's thesis begins on October 3.

 

What to Watch Next at EPL S24

The first checkpoint is Falcons vs. TYLOO. On paper, the seeding strongly favors Falcons, but the more useful question will be how cleanly karrigan's team establishes its tournament level.

Beyond the opener, watch three areas: whether m0NESY consistently provides the elite individual impact Thorin expects; whether karrigan's system continues to give NiKo and kyousuke productive freedom; and whether Falcons can reach the Spodek stage without needing another dramatic recovery run.

The broader tournament context matters too. Spirit are seeded first, Vitality second and Falcons third, meaning the Swiss stage could quickly reshape the pre-event hierarchy. 

 

FAQ

Who does Thorin think will win EPL S24?

Thorin has backed Falcons to win ESL Pro League Season 24. He cited the team's player quality, m0NESY's ability to take over matches and karrigan's history of producing major runs when expectations around his teams are lower. 

Are Falcons actually underdogs at EPL S24?

Not according to the official tournament seeding. Falcons are seeded No. 3, behind Spirit and Vitality. Thorin's “dark horse” description refers to his perception of expectations around the team rather than its formal seed. 

Who will Falcons play first at EPL S24?

Falcons will face TYLOO in their opening match. Falcons are the No. 3 seed and TYLOO are No. 14. 

When is ESL Pro League Season 24?

EPL S24 takes place from October 3 to October 11, 2026, in Katowice, Poland. The eight-team playoffs will be played at the Spodek Arena. 

Who plays for Falcons at EPL S24?

Falcons' listed lineup consists of karrigan, NiKo, TeSeS, m0NESY and kyousuke, with zonic as coach.