CS2 skin prices rebound—but a second shock may hit as early as October 30

After a whiplash week for Counter-Strike 2’s $6B skins economy, prices have started to climb back from the October 22 patch that let players “trade up” five Covert (red) skins into a knife or gloves. Dust2.us reported the market’s cap halved within ~38 hours (from roughly $6B to ~$3B), then recovered above $4B in the days that followed. But with the first wave of craftable knives becoming tradable/marketable one week later, the next leg down could begin as early as October 30 (Europe/Stockholm), when supply finally hits the Steam Market. 

What changed on October 22

Valve’s update explicitly extended Trade Up Contracts to gold-tier items: five regular Covert items can be exchanged for a regular knife or gloves, while five StatTrak™ Coverts yield a StatTrak™ knife. HLTV’s patch write-up and Valve’s notes confirm the mechanic and the timing. 

The crash, then a bounce

Independent trackers and press tallied a rapid loss of $1–3B in market cap within a day of the patch, followed by partial stabilization/recovery:

Dust2.us’ first report estimated a $1.7B drawdown shortly after the update, noting Valve quickly toggled the newly minted items to be tradable/marketable. 

Other outlets put the overnight wipeout between $2B and $3B, with Tom’s Hardware and PC Gamer documenting knife price collapses and red-skin spikes. 

Esports/market blogs tracked a rebound to roughly $4.7B (about 75% of the pre-patch peak) by October 25. 

Dust2.us’ follow-up (the story you shared) says the cap pushed back above $4B, but warns that “week-one” knives becoming marketable could trigger a broader sell-off. 

Why a second drop is likely

Basic supply/demand: an “unknown but certainly large” volume of knives created via trade-ups becomes eligible for listing one week after craft—i.e., from Oct 29–30 onward, depending on the time zone. More knives at once usually means downward pressure on knife prices, and if knives get cheaper, Covert (red) skins may slip too as players stop overpaying for reds to craft. That chain reaction is exactly what Dust2.us flags. 

Related coverage you can use

GamesRadar: community and Steam marketplace “in shambles”; formerly $10 reds now pivotal inputs; knives/gloves devalued. 

PC Gamer: “opposite day” pricing—accounts full of reds worth ~$90k while a Butterfly Emerald nosedives from ~$20k to ~$11k. 

Tom’s Hardware: frames it as a $6.08B → $3.08B shock; emphasizes investor risk in publisher-controlled virtual assets. 

Forbes (analysis): explains the mechanics behind the plunge and market-cap estimates. 

Verified community quotes & reactions

Anomaly (YouTuber/creator) on the patch landing inside minor notes: “Just tell me this is a nightmare.” He warned: “This price crash will most likely be the biggest one to date for knives and gloves.” (Quote compiled from coverage by esports.gg and his public posts.) 

ohnePixel (trader/creator) documented the crash and trade-up frenzy in videos/livestreams immediately after the update. (Useful to illustrate sentiment; see his post-patch videos.) 

Note: We’ve used quotes that major outlets captured or that appear in public creator content; direct X/Twitter posts can be hard-walled, so I’m citing reliable summaries and videos instead of inaccessible embeds.

What to watch next (near-term)

• Oct 30 onward: the first craftable knives become tradable/marketable; watch knife floors and then red-skin premiums for secondary effects. 

• Valve follow-ups: if Valve tweaks trade-up odds, pool composition, or tradability again, pricing could reprice quickly. (Mechanics confirmed in the Oct 22 notes.)