Upset Storm Rages in Budapest: Many Pre-Tournament Favourites Fall at the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025

Upset Storm Rages in Budapest: Many Pre-Tournament Favourites Fall at the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025

The opening round of Stage 1 at the StarLadder Budapest Major has shaken up expectations: several of the teams widely considered safe picks have already stumbled, sparking questions about form, preparation and the unique pressures of a Major event. 

Major Format & Stakes

The Budapest Major is significant in several respects. Organised by StarLadder and overseen by Valve, the event features 32 teams directly invited via the Valve Regional Standings—a departure from previous formats that used Major Regional Qualifiers. 
The format involves three Swiss-system stages (each with 16 teams) leading into a single-elimination playoff bracket for the final eight. Stage 1 alone includes sixteen invited teams battling for eight spots in Stage 2. 
This first day proved anything but gentle—already, several “favourites” have dropped in shocking fashion.

Upsets on Day One

Among the most startling results:

• B8, widely picked as a strong candidate, were defeated 11–13 by M80 on Mirage after a weak Terrorist side showing.

• Legacy, another highly-rated team, lost 10–13 to FlyQuest after failing to hold onto a 4-10 deficit, with FlyQuest mounting a resolute defensive stand powered by the trio of nettik, jks and Vexite.

• The most egregious fall perhaps came from Ninjas in Pyjamas (NiP), who were handed a convincing 7-13 loss by NRG on Overpass. NiP simply seemed flat across the board, while NRG—despite fielding a substitute—played with cohesion and confidence.

• GamerLegion also faltered, going down 10-13 to Fluxo in another result that defied conventional predictions. 

Factors Behind the Shock

So what’s going on? Several factors appear to be contributing to the surprise early exits of aforementioned favourites.

1. Stage 1 volatility & Swiss format
As a newly structured event with one-map matches (for most Swiss round matches), the margin for error is razor-thin. Experts had already flagged Stage 1 as “the underdogs’ realm,” where upsets are more likely. 
In such a format, even slight missteps can lead to elimination pressure swiftly.

2. Team preparation & rhythm issues
Taking the NiP vs NRG case: NRG entered without their regular starter, nitr0, who is on parental leave, yet still managed the upset. NiP, meanwhile, appeared to lack spark—with their in-game leader Snappi under-whelming and the team unable to gain momentum. 
NiP’s posting of a 9-16 rating by Snappi in that match hints at internal issues or poor tempo. 

3. Momentum shifts & confidence swings
FlyQuest’s comeback from 4-10 down against Legacy illustrated the power of momentum and self-belief in high-stakes matches. When a team digs in defensively and turns the tide, it rattles the opponent—a scenario apparently witnessed here. 
Further, M80’s early dominance over B8 suggested that some of the so-called “underdogs” weren’t just lucky—they came with scouted reads and clean executions. 

4. Region & meta dynamics
Brazil, for example, arrived in Budapest with a tournament-high 28 players and were seen as having much to play for, including the home-continent pressure and expectation. 
At the same time, newer line-ups or roster changes (such as those that might affect “favourite” status teams) may mean cohesion is less assured than past results implied.

Implications for the Road Ahead

With these early departures, the narrative for Stage 1 and beyond shifts considerably.

• Teams which were once considered almost “safe” now live in real danger of elimination from the Major at Stage 1.

• For fans filling out Pick’Em brackets, the window for leveraging one-and-done upsets has reopened—expectation management is key.

• For the surviving “favourites,” the pressure increases: they must avoid the trap of overconfidence and re-assess their strategies if they hope to navigate Swiss stages and reach the playoffs.

Quick Snapshot of Key Matches

• NiP vs NRG: 7-13 (Overpass) – NiP unimpressive, NRG capitalised.

• B8 vs M80: 11-13 – B8’s T-side breakdown allowed M80 to steal the map.

• Legacy vs FlyQuest: 10-13 – FlyQuest’s defence and comeback were decisive.

• GamerLegion vs Fluxo: 10-13 – Another favourite failing to close.

Final Thoughts

The StarLadder Budapest Major Stage 1 has started with its fair share of fireworks—and not the kind the favourites had hoped for. Teams that arrived as safe bets are already scrambling to regroup, while underdogs are seizing their opportunities with sharp play and momentum. As the tournament unfolds, these early tremors may ripple through to affect not only the standings, but the psyche of entire rosters.

If you’re watching from the sidelines—or making your own predictions—this is a reminder that at a Major where the weakest link is exposed instantly, no one is safe, and every match matters.